Few things have grown as rapidly as blockchain technology has over the past five years. The stunning rise to power has been marked by ups and downs, to be sure, but the increase in platforms has been truly incredible. What started as one API (application programming interface) in 2012 has grown to around 50 as … Continue reading Decentralized Technology is Revamping the Video Streaming Industry
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Sunday morning brings us the traditional Weekend Notes from One River CIO, Eric Peters, whose panoply of topics under discussion today include systematic investing, economic forecasts, Fed reaction functions, Twitter algorithms, bond yields for the new abnormal, fear and greed, and of course “Rocket Man.”
Below are several excerpts from his latest weekly note:
“Whatever investment style you adopt will blow up someday,” said the CIO. “When that day comes, will you fold or double down?” he continued.
We were discussing systematic investing. I see its future dominance and am building my firm accordingly.
“If you’ve surrendered control to a machine, how will you make that decision?” he asked. Before I could answer, he supplied his own. “I’d rather practice making decisions along the way so that I’ll either avoid the blow up or at least understand my strategy in the crisis.”
That’s a credible position to take on the matter; for years I took it myself. But time changes most things, ourselves in particular. Day by day, month by month, we’re different people. Humble, hubristic, stubborn, objective, greedy, fearful, certain, confused, euphoric, depressed, and every imaginable combination thereof.
The two greatest advantages of developing decision-making algorithms are that they allow us to consistently be our finest selves, and they can apply our process across more markets than a single human ever could. But the difficulty of distilling profound complexity into a set of robust rules leads many practitioners to cut corners – which takes the form of choosing rules that worked in the recent past for seemingly arbitrary reasons, and building algorithms without sensible risk-mitigation to avoid its corresponding costs.
Such strategies put their investors at risk of catastrophic loss in exchange for a pile of pennies, and/or tend to make money in every time period except for the future.
But such pitfalls are not machine error, they reflect human weakness, and are thus common to both poorly designed discretionary and systematic strategies.
Because ultimately, every conceivable form of successful money management requires the experience to identify rules that tend to make money over time, and the introspection necessary to come to know our finest selves.
Bonus #1: Peters on bond issuance in the “illiquidstan” market:
Tajikistan issued 10yr bonds this month. Less than 1bp of mankind can locate Tajikistan on a map. Nearly all are Tajiks.
But the bonds paid 7.125% which is roughly what pensions need to prevent insolvency. Bahrain issued $3bln of 12yr paper at 6.75% ($15bln of bids). Iraq issued $1bln at 5yrs at 6.75%. Belarus issued 10yr paper at 7.63%. And Ukraine issued $3bln of 15yrs. $1.6bln rolled existing paper that nearly defaulted 2yrs ago when investors wrote off $3.6bln in debt and delayed payments for 4yrs.
This new issue yielded 7.37%.
Bonus #2: Rocket Man
“Did he really call me Rocket Man?” cried the chubby Korean kid. “Yes he did Rocket Man,” said some nervous sycophant in a cheap suit, saluting his Dear Leader.
“Did he call me a scared, barking dog?” barked earth’s most powerful man, typing a tweet. “Woof!” answered the President’s pack. “He called me a suicidal madman on Twitter!” stammered shorty, combing his black bouffant. “He said he’d tame Trump with fire?” asked The Donald, incredulous, swirling his sweep.
“He tweeted North Korea would be tested like never before!” screeched Kim, pounding the table, knuckles mere dimples, baby fat.
“He said he’ll detonate a hydrogen bomb over the Pacific?” asked our entertainer in chief, excited, knowing a sensational season opener when he sees one.
“Shall I go thermonuclear?” asked the itsy bitsy dictator. And his generals glanced left, right, unsure. “Shall I do it?” he screamed. The garden gnomes stood motionless. “Tell me, shall I mention Trump’s little hands?” asked Kim Jong Un, dead serious. They shook their heads in perfect unison; such a devastating insult would surely end 3.5mm years of human evolution. “Dear Leader, such an insult must be saved, savored,” pleaded his generals. “Very well, I’ll call him a dotard!” cried the child.
“Kim called me a dotard! A dotard! What the hell does that even mean?” whispered the steward of earth’s largest nuclear arsenal. An Ivy League intern explained, “Mr. President, it’s actually pronounced DOE-turd, and it’s a middle English word used by Shakespeare that means an ageing imbecile…” The Donald cut him off, “You’re fired!”
The room fell silent, the enormity of this unexpected crisis sinking in. You see, dotard is the kind of nickname that just might stick.
But at least the risk of nuclear Armageddon had receded. Because of course, it’s simply not possible to end civilization amidst such buffoonery.
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EURUSD: With the pair still facing price correction despite its past week price hesitation, more correction is envisaged. Resistance comes in at 1.2000 level with a cut through here opening the door for more upside towards the 1.2050 level. Further up,…
DHAKA, Bangladesh: The office of Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikha Hasina on Sunday denied as “completely baseless” some media reports of a plot by her bodyguards to kill her last month.
However a senior minister said separately there had been an assassination conspiracy, without giving details.
The prime minister’s office issued a statement condemning the allegations carried in some news outlets as “completely baseless, misleading and motivated.”
Deputy press secretary Mohammad Ashraful Alam said the rumors of an assassination attempt on August 24 by officers of Hasina’s special security force were fabricated and damaging to the country.
Bangladesh’s state-run news agency issued an advisory Saturday asking subscribers not to use an earlier story apparently referring to the reports. Some other outlets published details of an alleged plot involving the bodyguards and an Islamist group.
Obaidul Quader, an influential minister and deputy leader of the ruling Awami League party, told reporters Sunday there had been a conspiracy between local and foreign groups to assassinate the prime minister but offered no details.
Hasina, seen as a moderate in religious affairs in the mainly Muslim nation, was targeted by an Islamist extremist group in 2004 when leader of the opposition. She survived a grenade attack at a political rally which killed 22 people.
Since coming to power, she has cracked down on religious extremists.
Rumours of another assassination attempt come as Hasina rallies international support at the United Nations in New York over the Rohingya refugee crisis unfolding on Bangladesh’s border.
The UN said Sunday that 436,000 Rohingya fleeing ethnic violence in Myanmar had arrived in Bangladesh in the past month.
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To illustrate just how impressive this rally has been, let’s say you had the foresight (or good luck) to purchase $10 worth of bitcoin at the time the first …The post $10 worth of bitcoin in 2010 appeared first on bitcoinmining.shop.
The post $1…
We certainly don’t need Donald Trump to remind us that the charade called professional sports is one big commerical exploitation. That alone should be enough reason not to watch…before you even get to this performance.
And why do they play the Nati…
WASHINGTON: US President Donald Trump on Sunday urged fans to boycott National Football League games to pressure the league to fire or suspend players who show disrespect for “Flag and Country.”
Trump’s latest Twitter salvo was the latest blow in an escalating war of words with some of professional sports’ biggest stars over his condemnation of NFL players protesting the national anthem.
“If NFL fans refuse to go to games until players stop disrespecting our Flag and Country, you will see change take place fast. Fire or suspend!” he said.
“NFL attendance and ratings are WAY DOWN. Boring games yes, but many stay away because they love our country. League should back US,” he said.
The row began on Friday at a Republican rally in Alabama when Trump attacked activist National Football League players — mostly African Americans — as “sons of bitches” for kneeling or sitting during renditions of “The Star-Spangled Banner.”
On the same day, basketball star Stephen Curry, the top player for California’s Golden State Warriors, said he would not attend a traditional White House reception honoring the winning basketball team.
Several hours later, Trump hit back with an early-morning Twitter salvo.
“Going to the White House is considered a great honor for a championship team. Stephen Curry is hesitating, therefore invitation is withdrawn!” he wrote.
Trump’s outburst drew a stinging response from across the NBA, with Cleveland Cavaliers superstar LeBron James among the first to weigh in.
“U bum @StephenCurry30 already said he ain’t going!” James wrote on Twitter. “So therefore ain’t no invite. Going to White House was a great honor until you showed up.”
The protests began last year when quarterback Colin Kaepernick of the San Francisco 49ers refused to stand for the anthem to protest racial injustice and police brutality.
Several more players have since joined in, nearly all of them black.
Kaepernick, who was unable to land a job with a team this season, has attracted support from his peers but also some backlash.
The 29-year-old said he started his protests because he wanted to spark a nationwide debate on racial injustice and police brutality.
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Images of war often include missiles, tanks, and troops. But the next war is likely to include a component invisible to the naked eye. Cyber-attacks can cripple an economy and destabilize a society as effectively as a conventional war – at a fraction of the cost. The recent Equifax hacking incident, impacting nearly 143 million […]
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